Post date: Jun 03, 2013 3:28:5 PM
Latvia is heading towards a demographic catastrophe scientists warn. They call on the government to take urgent steps to avoid it. For the past 20 years this tiny Baltic country with the population of 2.1 million had the worst birth and mortality rates in the European Union.
RIGA, LATVIA (RECENT, 2013) (REUTERS) - In just five to ten years Latvia is going to face a demographic catastrophe - according to demographic experts. The tiny country in the Baltics with population of 2.1 million has been showing the worst birth and mortality rates in the European Union for the past 20 years. Last year, 19.900 children were born and 29.000 people died. Natural growth has decreased six percent in 2012 compared to 2011.
Demographers warn that Latvia does not have much time to avoid the demographic catastrophe, and the government should act now when the number women of reproductive age is at its peak (250.000).Latvia experienced a baby boom in the 1980's when approximately 40.000 babies were born every year. Following the country's independence and its economic collapse in the early 1990's, a rapid drop in birth rate followed.
"If we are not able to even out the numbers between birth and mortality now, when there are so many women at a reproductive age, just like [neighbouring] Estoniahas done, then in the next five to 10 years we will face quite a big, I would say, catastrophe. It will be a dead end situation," explains demographer Ilmars Mezs.
Even though the government declared demography as one of its priorities, the country's support for the young families is one the lowest in the European Union - just one percent of the GDP, while most of the countries spend 2 percent, andFrance and Scandinavian countries - spend 3 percent.
Latvian minister of Welfare, Ilze Vinkele emphasises that that the birth rate in the first quarter of 2013 has risen by three percent.
"Three percent ( increase in birth rate in the first quarter of 2013) - that's what it is now, after (the economy's) recovery from the crisis, when there is a certain predictability about the future after some demographic (government) initiatives - interpret it yourself," Vinkele says.
Demographer Mezs says that even a birth rate increase of three percent wouldn't be enough as also the mortality has gone up by 4,4 percent.
Latvia has the lowest fertility rate in the European Union - on average, one woman gives birth to 1.1 children. In order for the society to break even, the average number should be at least 2.2 - 2.3 children per woman.
Welfare minister Vinkele says that from 2013 family benefits, the so-called "mother's salary", has been raised from 50 lats (70 euro) to 100 lats (114 euro) per month, and it is being paid till the child reaches the age of one and half years, half a year longer than in the past. But the benefits for older children remain the same - 8 lats (approximately 10 euros) per child per month.
Sandija Salaka, the leader of the Latvian NGO "Mummy club" points out that the government does not conduct family-friendly policy.
"Since 2008, when the budget cuts started, when support was taken away, new families suffered the most. And we expected that now, when Latvia is presented as a success story and the rates improve, children would become a priority again in all aspects," says Salaka.
A survey recently carried out by the "Mummy club" shows that more than half of the families would love to have a second, third or even fourth child, but families with two or more children are at a high risk of poverty.
Three and a half year-old Davis Avotins is the only child in the family. His parents - a school teacher and an employee of a bank have decided not to have more children because they can't afford it.
"Well, if we eat very simple food, wear very simple clothes, if we do not use car, if we do not buy toys for the child, if we do not take the child to fun parks, if we do not go to the seaside, circus, then we can afford it. If we eat the cheapest food and wear the cheapest clothes, then we can. But if we want a nice life for our child then we can't afford it. Even though our salaries are not the worst in Latvia," says Davis' father, teacher Juris Avotins.
The family struggled to make the ends meet for several years after the state cut teacher's salaries by 50 percent, when Davis was six months old. When he turned one, his mother decided to return to work - but was not reinstated.
"When we planned Davis - we relied on the well-being and development of the country, but it all turned out just the opposite. If we had known that the salary will be cut, that we will lose job, I don't think we would have dared,"
Juris Antonis says.
Inga Greizane, who three days ago gave birth to her first child at Riga Maternity Hospital, doubts she will ever be able to afford a second child.
"I am not sure... I don't trust the state, so planning in perspective that after one, two years, there will be another child and job, and that there will be support from the state - unfortunately, I don't have such hope," she said.
Ilmar Mezs draws a grim outlook for the future: "Based on dynamics of the birth rate and the mortality rate now, after two generations, the number of descendants of inhabitants of Latvia will be reduced by two thirds. And in 100 years - and we are all thinking that Latvian culture and language will last for hundreds of years - in these 100 years we will be just a minority, between 10 to 20 percent. Our Song and Dance Festival will be held in a meadow in the Open Air Museum in order not to bother other inhabitants of Riga. Our short term policies are very, very irresponsible to the existence of this country's national interests in the future."